my optimistic view for future caribbean med school graduates.

[BrightFuture]

So the US medical schools are increasing their enrollment, it seems that there will be more US med school graduates competing for the limited amount of residency spots. that is bad news for the caribbean students.

however, some of those US medical students are the exact same students who would have gone to caribbean med. schools if the US schools didn't increase their enrollment. Most of the Caribbean medical students are US citizens.

when the US med school are enrolling more students, that means there will be less US citizens/residents going to the caribbean med. schools. After all, those particular student population in the US remains steady.

further more, whether the person goes to a US or a caribbean medical school, that person still has to take step 1, 2, etc. everyone still has to go through the same process. some of those US medical students will fail just like the ones in the caribbean schools, etc. the overall medical student population should be the same. after all, medical school education is not cheap in or outside of usa.

The total amount of people who will compete for residency spots might increase a little, but I don't think that it will increase a lot. In the end, the situation might be the same in the future.

As the population in the USA continues to grow, I am sure that more residency positions will be available.

what do you guys think?

[O.Titan]

As I posted in another thread:

Each year, the AAMC Center for Workforce Studies surveys medical schools
regarding their enrollment plans for the next 5 years. Based on the 2008 survey, the
AAMC estimates that first-year U.S. medical school enrollment will increase to
19,946 in the 2013 academic year. This represents an increase of 21% (3,458) from
the 2002 academic year. Looking beyond 2013, this rate of growth will not lead to
a 30% increase by 2015 as recommended by AAMC, but it could by 2017 or 2018.

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q...HVi35L0KglMKkA

Basically the big increase is going to be in 2012-2013 and not 2010/2011. That means that they'll graduate in 2016-2017 and if GME doesn't increase then there should be a crunch about that time.
I sure hope this is true, cause I'm set to match in 2015...

Also heres another article stating that Medical School enrollment increased by 3%:
Med School Enrollment is Up

Although according to their numbers, 19,230 students were part of the 2011 medical school class. In the 2012 there were 16,527 applicants from US Medical Schools. However, you have to take into account the students who will repeat classes, take time off, switch majors, etc... In the end, I'd guess there will be a crunch, but not as bad as it should be in the later years.

Theres definitely going to be a decrease in IMG matches in the future; however, from what I've heard the non-US IMGs are going to get hit hard first and then it'll trickle down to US IMGs. I'd bet programs in general will be reluctant to stop offering to US IMGs because of possible backlash and I've heard Carib schools have quite a big lobby. Not to mention, the residency programs are going to eventually have to increase so we might see a dip in matches but then that might level back up again.

Ultimately, time is the only thing that will tell what will happen. You just have to do your best and forget the rest. There are some things in your control and others that aren't, fix what you can and don't sweat the other parts.

[thxleave]

Are you optimistic because you want to believe or is it based on fact? I like to imagine life will improve but believing doesn't stop truth.

[BrightFuture]

i can't predict future, but i think that the US population will continue to grow. so people need more doctors. that is a fact. i don't think that residency spots will decrease, it will only increase.

this increasing enrollment thing is bad for all those carib school owners, but it shouldn't be too bad for future carib school graduates who are usa citizens/residents. the total numbers of students who want to go to med. schools won't increase suddenly. the exams won't become easier. those brave students who used to be forced to go to carib. schools, they can now take classes right inside USA. with the increasing enrollment, probably US med school's passing rate will decrease a little as well.

[houmd]

with the increasing population will also increase the applicant pool to get into those us positions....

[soniaa]

Next years match 2013 will be very hard but as I am hearing from PD and fellows 2014 and 2015 and even 2016 match will be impossible for IMG/ US-IMG to match.

Please think twice before coming to Carib or going anywhere else.

[numbershacker]

A lot of the real result here is ultimately _political_.

How stable are the legal requirements for getting a medical license in each state?
Does the US continue to provide immigration visas to FMG?
Does the US continue to not recognize foreign residencies or do they loosen up on that even more than they have recently?

What I see as sad: the data to make these choices is only minimally available.

The US is in a budget crunch. I doubt VERY much there will be more funding for residencies. However, I can easily imagine replacement of non-citizen FMG residency positions with citizen IMG positions(perhaps accompanied with greater recognition of foreign residencies).

Bottom line:
US IMG vote, they have parents that vote, they often serve communities that prefer folks from their communities to serve them medically. I can also imagine some states reducing their residency requirements for USIMG to be something more comparable to USMSG-especially for primary care positions(this might be combined with something like increasing the USMLE score requirements for basic licensure). Both of these would increase the positions available to USIMG.

[soniaa]

A lot of the real result here is ultimately _political_.

How stable are the legal requirements for getting a medical license in each state?
Does the US continue to provide immigration visas to FMG?
Does the US continue to not recognize foreign residencies or do they loosen up on that even more than they have recently?

What I see as sad: the data to make these choices is only minimally available.

The US is in a budget crunch. I doubt VERY much there will be more funding for residencies. However, I can easily imagine replacement of non-citizen FMG residency positions with citizen IMG positions(perhaps accompanied with greater recognition of foreign residencies).

Bottom line:
US IMG vote, they have parents that vote, they often serve communities that prefer folks from their communities to serve them medically. I can also imagine some states reducing their residency requirements for USIMG to be something more comparable to USMSG-especially for primary care positions(this might be combined with something like increasing the USMLE score requirements for basic licensure). Both of these would increase the positions available to USIMG.

True, but the program that sponsor J-1 Visa do it, so they have cheap labor work and have the MD out of the country. Its weird but if they keep everyone that means the average physician will make less than 12$ an hour.

[soniaa]

US-IMG will always have positions

[numbershacker]

"True, but the program that sponsor J-1 Visa do it, so they have cheap labor work and have the MD out of the country. Its weird but if they keep everyone that means the average physician will make less than 12$ an hour."
The thing is: these visa policies are determined by congress. If you look at the polls, there is broad suspicion about loose immigration policies-and especially stuff like H-1b temporary visas. These policies are however supported by the most wealthy voters-which is where most political donations come from.

In the case of H-1b expansion, 82% of Americans polled opposed it in 1998(when there was a big expansion)-but major employers essentially bought congress with hundreds of millions of "campaign donations" aka legal bribes.

The question is just when/if this all becomes a political issue? Some governments like Saudi Arabia, pretty systematically follow guest worker policies that assure there is a very high rate of unemployment among their citizens. However, those governments usually don't have to worry about elections.