Possible new storm east of the islands

[weatherman]

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...


The area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave locatedjust east of the Windward Islands has become a little betterorganized this morning. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft isscheduled to investigate this area this afternoon. Whileenvironmental conditions do not appear especially favorable fordevelopment...there is still some potential for this system tobecome a tropical depression during the next day or two as it moveswestward near 15 to 20 mph. Regardless of whether developmentoccurs...this system will likely bring squalls to the Windward

[byteme]

Directly from the National Weather Service's National Hurricane Center (National Hurricane Center):

HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
400 AM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...

AT 400 AM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FROM WEST OF CHILITEPEC TO VERACRUZ MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF BELIZE AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESO SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO VERACRUZ. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

THE EYE OF DEAN MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR COSTA MAYA OR MAJAHUAL AROUND 330 AM CDT. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO

AT 400 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED JUST INLAND ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 195 MILES...315 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR ... AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT.

[weatherman]

Update 94L

You can tell it's getting near peak hurricane season, since we are tracking four separate areas of disturbed weather that NHC has labeled as "Invests." None of these disturbances are a major concern at present, but we will need to watch them closely.

Not much has changed from yesterday with 94L, the tropical wave about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The wave has slowed down its forward speed to 10-15 mph, so should be entering the islands on Saturday, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain. QuikSCAT data from last night showed that the storm became less organized yesterday, with a weak, elongated circulation. Top winds were 20 knots (23 mph). Visible satellite loops show a limited amount of disorganized thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is still a favorable 5-10 knots over 94L, and may decrease some by Saturday, allowing a better chance for development. It looks like 94L will stay well south of the shearing winds of the upper-level low spinning north of Puerto Rico.

The presence of a large, dusty area of dry air surrounding its north side continues to cause major problems for 94L. Once again today, this dry air is being sucked into 94L's thunderstorms. This dry air is creating strong downdrafts visible as arc-shaped surface cumulus clouds along the ocean surface. The presence of these arc-shaped surface clouds is usually a good sign that a storm is struggling with dry air and will not intensify significantly for at least the next 12 hours.

Water vapor satellite loops of the region show that 94L has not significantly moistened its environment. As the storm continues further west, it may be able to gradually do so, allowing it more of a chance to get organized. None of the reliable computer models forecast that 94L will develop into a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system on Friday afternoon.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image showing the various disturbed area of weather in the Atlantic today.

This material extracted from weatherunderground.

Invest area 94L should pass through the antilles on Saturday. By that time wind speeds should be aboout 50 MPH with heavy rainfall. The islands most likely to be effected are Saint Lucia to the north and Grenada to the south.

Weatherman

[weatherman]

The tropical wave about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, 94L, has become better organized today, and has the potential to become a tropical depression on Friday. Visible satellite loops show a limited amount of thunderstorm activity, but the circulation has gotten much better defined in the past few hours. Low level cumulus clouds are now starting to spiral into the center, and there is the beginning of a spiral band with heavy rain trying to form on the southeast side of 94L. This process is being slowed by the presence of a large, dusty area of dry air on its northwest side, and thunderstorm activity will be slow to build on this northwest side over the next day or two.

Water vapor satellite loops of the region show that 94L has not significantly moistened its environment. However, now that it is better organized, it should be able to build more thunderstorm activity and moisten its surrounding environment. Wind shear is a favorable 5-10 knots over 94L, and may decrease some by Saturday, allowing further development. It looks like 94L will stay well south of the shearing winds of the upper-level low spinning north of Puerto Rico.

94L has slowed down its forward speed to 10-15 mph, so should be entering the Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday night, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain. None of the reliable computer models forecast that 94L will develop into a tropical depression, but it now appears that it has a legitimate chance of becoming one Friday or Saturday. Due to the dry air, I think it unlikely 94L will be stronger than a 50-mph tropical storm when it passes through the Lesser Antilles Islands. The southern portion of the islands will get the most rain, due to the dry air on the north side of 94L. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate on Friday afternoon.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image showing the various disturbed area of weather in the Atlantic today.

The storm track has not shifted. As mentioned previously the most likely tract is Saint Lucia on the north to Grenada on the south.

Weatherman

[weatherman]

This developing storm has shifted slighly to the south. The primary track take in Tobago, Grenada and Saint Vincent. The storm should be a tropical depression as it passes through the southern Antilles with winds to 50 MPH and heavy rains.

Weatherman

[Scott1981]

this storm is similar to where charley developed. ivan went through this same path too, but ivan was already developed at this point.

weatherman, do you think the cold front sweeping down over the east coast of the US will pick this thing up and swing it into the states or gulf of mexico?

[weatherman]

The storm is most likely to stay south, much further south than normal. This storm is most likely going to hit central Belize. Schools in Belize, especially MUA-B and CAHSU should closely monitor this storm.

Weatherman

[weatherman]

By Wednesday afternoon Felix should be close to the Coast of Belize as a Cat. 3 hurricane. It should reemerge in the Gulf of Mexico as did Dean but once in the Gulf it may begin to track further north than Dean. To early to tell. In addition a new storm designated 98L has formed off the coast of Africa. Early data indicates that this storm if it continues to develop will probably take a track similar to Felix with a storm intensity in the Antilles which will also be similar to Felix.

Weatherman