charting outcomes in the match

[darkmansaad]

so the new nrmp charting outcomes chart is available on their home page...i recomend all MS3's and MS4's read it. I am under the impression that everything "competitive" got a lot more competitive at least from what I have read so far. If anyone has another point of view Id love to hear it but even anesthesia which someone on this board mentioned as now "easier" to get into had 330ish US APPLICANTS fail to match..thats almost 40% the highest unmatched ratio next to plastics and derm. I mean if your aiming for primary care i woudlnt run for the hills but if your aiming for anything competitive...its getting pretty bad out there.

Also dont take this as fear mongering, if anything it should make you work harder to avoid being scrambled. One last point is to pay attention to the # of contiguous ranks applicants had and the match ratios for that number..usually that is the magic # of interviews after where you are almost assured of a match. In this chart it seems the # has gotten really high esp for competitive programs..over 12 in some cases...also not promising.

Any other opinions on this chart???

[mario345]

thanks for bringing this up...

[mario345]

Copied from page 7:

Anesthesiology:
Total Positions Offered 1,374
Total Number of Applicants 1,729
Ratio 1.3
U.S. seniors matched 888
U.S. Seniors NOT matched 306
IMGs matched 179
IMGs NOT matched 356

that is certainly an eye opener, however, there are a couple of things to be considered:

Of the total of 1374 positions offered, only 888+179 = 1067 are taken into account. What about the other 307 (1374 minus 1067)?

Still 1.3 is not THAT bad of a rate. Means that 80% of the applicants matched if they applied for anesthesia OVERALL.
Only 50% of IMGs matched, but then we did not take into account how many pre-matched. I am assuming thats a BIG chunk of those un explained numbers.

Of these 50% of IMGs, we have to separate U.S./Cdn citizens from a foreign school vs. those who are foreigners as well, as there is again a positive bias if you are an American citizen. I couldnt see those exact stats.

Within the anesthesia section of the report, there is a lot of stuff on matching 'within contiguous rank'. Not sure what that means (is it that they matched eventually if they ranked 10 programs? the curve reaches 100% after the bottom number of 8).
Still, the stats there are quite herroendous...only 50% of IMGs matching with a score between 231-240 on step 1! YIKES. I guess I gotta murder Step 2 now.

I did infact say that anesthesia was scrambled into, I am still standing by that - as many people simultaneously told me that they saw vacant positions in anesthesia. But yeah, you are right - its not looking good.

However, couple of positives - i thought that there were only 800 anesthesia spots (vs 1300 some listed there).

There is more of a ratio bias in internal medicine and surgery (1.6 and 2.0) which seems ridiculous to me, as int med and gen surgery is where most people go into.

[darkmansaad]

i dont want to harp on the anesthesia example, but as you can see from the chart, the people getting scores in the 240+ range still only have about 50/50ish chances of gettin a good match....and thats just gas. I was just trying to make a point that my doomsday mongering wasnt just me being a douche. Even my AMG friends have small bowel obstruction after reading this. Just more of a reason to bust your tail right?

and as for programs being vacant...lots of programs keep those spots vacant rather than letting people scramble into em...that way they can pick up people who switch specialties after PGY1. Also...when it comes to scramble they can discriminate and say no to the IMG and say yes to the american grad who applies at the same time...counting on scramble is like counting on meeting jessica alba at a bar and taking her home that night ...aka GOOD LUCK!

AND those extra spots you are talking about that you assume people are "scrambling" into? WRONG. The anesthesia spots are listed by PRIMARY RANK. So those 300 spots went to people that did not rank anesthesia as their primary rank aka the ortho/derm/optho/ENT/Uro/etc guys that ranked anesthesia as a backup and ended up getting it get put in the category of UNMATCHED in their primary. They still get gas but that spot doesnt go into the stats as an anesthesia Primary Match. And if you like to compete with AMGs with numbers that make them competitive for the specialties i just mentioned...again...GOOD LUCK.

I leave you with a quote from Victor Martinez a famous bodybuilder
"Somewhere out there is my enemy...and he is training while I am training...and if I am not training all the time....when we meet, he will beat me"

[ddliang]

get your math straight, IMG's match rate is near 33%........179/535 applicants...........

[mario345]

^alright boss...take it ez.

[mario345]

i dont want to harp on the anesthesia example, but as you can see from the chart, the people getting scores in the 240+ range still only have about 50/50ish chances of gettin a good match....and thats just gas. I was just trying to make a point that my doomsday mongering wasnt just me being a douche. Even my AMG friends have small bowel obstruction after reading this. Just more of a reason to bust your tail right?

i didnt think that you were being a douche. and i brought up gas coz thats what im interested in. and yah, this changes things...lol


and as for programs being vacant...lots of programs keep those spots vacant rather than letting people scramble into em...that way they can pick up people who switch specialties after PGY1. Also...when it comes to scramble they can discriminate and say no to the IMG and say yes to the american grad who applies at the same time...counting on scramble is like counting on meeting jessica alba at a bar and taking her home that night ...aka GOOD LUCK!
AND those extra spots you are talking about that you assume people are "scrambling" into? WRONG. The anesthesia spots are listed by PRIMARY RANK. So those 300 spots went to people that did not rank anesthesia as their primary rank aka the ortho/derm/optho/ENT/Uro/etc guys that ranked anesthesia as a backup and ended up getting it get put in the category of UNMATCHED in their primary. They still get gas but that spot doesnt go into the stats as an anesthesia Primary Match. And if you like to compete with AMGs with numbers that make them competitive for the specialties i just mentioned...again...GOOD LUCK.

I leave you with a quote from Victor Martinez a famous bodybuilder
"Somewhere out there is my enemy...and he is training while I am training...and if I am not training all the time....when we meet, he will beat me"
yah, i didnt get why there was a discrepancy in math. thanks for the clarification, i appreciate it.

[axiomofchoice]

darkman.... what's the point of this. You killed everything thus far. From what we can tell here you are an all around excellent student (well toned musculature and all). Its time for you to apply to the match. Maybe you've made it to this point without the doomsday thinking that all of us carib students deal with. Why start now? Most folks I've talked to who have actually gone through the match (literally finished, not only read about it online) say its fine. I am certain it will be for you too. Reflect and be proud of what you've done and leave the worrying to the people who haven't scored 99s yet

[darkmansaad]

i dunno, help? spreading information that is important? Someone in my family scrambled last year and its not something to happen to anybody else? Haha maybe i come off the wrong way but I think getting your head completely around the information is the best way to succeed and apparently it is possible to succeed when 17 IMGs even got plastics....I just think that you need to be prepared and have all the information in hand is all. Sorry if it came off the wrong way. Maybe it would be wiser to be like the other older students in rotations/residency that have decided to stop posting and being helpful.....

[ds_in_tx]

Of the total of 1374 positions offered, only 888+179 = 1067 are taken into account. What about the other 307 (1374 minus 1067)?

Probably DOs, if they are breaking out IMGs from the total population of "Independent" applicants (which includes IMGs, DOs and AMGs not graduating this year).

I would certainly advise people considering Caribbean med school RIGHT NOW (that is, aren't already 100K in debt) to take another year and apply to all the DO schools, especially if you think you may want a competitive specialty. Getting a decent match from the Caribbean is only going to get more difficult with more and more US-trained students entering the match every year. And you have a decent shot of getting in to some DO school somewhere with the stats required by the "top" Caribbean schools (MCAT >24, GPA>3.3).

Case in point: myself. Many basic science and clinical honors, 99 Step 1 (athough only 92 step 2). LORs ranging from pretty good to exceptional. Ended up matching my #7, in pathology. And #1-6 were not Mayo, Mass General, Hopkins, etc. either.

If you get a chance to prematch at a program you like, I'd say go for it. Even if it's not in your Top 3 or whatever the conventional wisdom is. Really go for it if it's in a competitive specialty.

[axiomofchoice]

I understand you're trying to help and people like you are very important to this site's usefulness. I'm just not used to you worrying about this, as you always sound so confident with all the pieces of the puzzle in place. It was just my longwinded way of saying you'll be fine. But you're right, many of the students stop posting after they get through all those rocky parts of the process. I'm sure I speak for the whole vmd community when I say we're glad people like you and some of the other higher ups are hanging around.

[rokshana]

darkman.... what's the point of this. You killed everything thus far. From what we can tell here you are an all around excellent student (well toned musculature and all). Its time for you to apply to the match. Maybe you've made it to this point without the doomsday thinking that all of us carib students deal with. Why start now? Most folks I've talked to who have actually gone through the match (literally finished, not only read about it online) say its fine. I am certain it will be for you too. Reflect and be proud of what you've done and leave the worrying to the people who haven't scored 99s yet


hi! went through the match, and matched...was a competitive applicant...and was scared to death the whole time...ROL was 18 long (matched #3)...and agree with darkman...you should be scared and do everything possible to make yourself the best possible applicant...2 yrs ago it was easier...and its just only gonna get harder...and by 2014??? all i can say is boy am i glad i graduated in 08!

and its maybe that darkman is now seeing the reality since he is actually going through the match...before it was just all what others had to say to him...now?

[axiomofchoice]

hi! went through the match, and matched...was a competitive applicant...and was scared to death the whole time...ROL was 18 long (matched #3)...and agree with darkman...you should be scared and do everything possible to make yourself the best possible applicant...2 yrs ago it was easier...and its just only gonna get harder...and by 2014??? all i can say is boy am i glad i graduated in 08!

and its maybe that darkman is now seeing the reality since he is actually going through the match...before it was just all what others had to say to him...now?

I agree. But he's done all that - worked as hard as possible and achieved all the scores etc. All I'm saying is that you've done all you can and you've done it right. Its out of your hands now.... and it'll go well.
I agree we should all get all possible info/be scared/ and do well. The thing is, if darkmansaad can't match... then its time to close the carib schools down... thats all I'm saying ( I don't think its ever been this hard to give a compliment/ try to help someone to relax)

[rokshana]

I agree. But he's done all that - worked as hard as possible and achieved all the scores etc. All I'm saying is that you've done all you can and you've done it right. Its out of your hands now.... and it'll go well.
I agree we should all get all possible info/be scared/ and do well. The thing is, if darkmansaad can't match... then its time to close the carib schools down... thats all I'm saying ( I don't think its ever been this hard to give a compliment/ try to help someone to relax)

maybe, maybe not...it depends on what he is going for...IM? super competitive and should have no problem even if he is looking at competitive programs...orthopedic surgery?...well...he's in the pack for those who apply...still probably will be sweatin' it up to black monday...

even those of us who are fairly comfortable that we will match still get the butterflies and the worries...probably wouldn't have done as well in med school if we didn't get those butterflies...and while nmice that you want to reassure him, he should be allowed to voice his fears and uncertainities without being told he is being negative and that they are unfounded...in this day...they are not so unfounded even if its not what we want to hear...

i'm one of a handful of F/IMGs at my program and this year we took NO caribbean applicants (and very very few FMGs maybe 4 or 5 out of 25?) really think there that many less qualified I/FMGs the last match year?

[atropine]

Has anyone had trouble matching into FM? I might want to apply for specialties, but at the end of the day, I'll just be happy to match into SOMETHING...

[darkmansaad]

well thats why i posted this chart....so you can see what type of applicant has trouble matching and what type of applicant usually doesnt. take a look at the specialties you like and see where you fit in the chart (step1/2, research, etc)

Does anyone see any interesting trends in this chart that I dont?

[darkmansaad]

well thats why i posted this chart....so you can see what type of applicant has trouble matching and what type of applicant usually doesnt. take a look at the specialties you like and see where you fit in the chart (step1/2, research, etc)

Does anyone see any interesting trends in this chart that I dont?

[wolfvgang22]

Thanks for the post, good data.

[krust3]

Saad,

you be doing push ups and isometric glutes in preparation for your upcoming applications instead of posting on VMD.

let me know if you wanna go in on a pallet of Red Bull and spray tan. i wanna be on my game for these interviews.