Thread: 2016 -- 1:1 ratio of american med grads to residency spots? Citation?

A statistic that has been cited many times on valuemd is that by 2016 there will be a 1:1 ratio of american med school graduates to residency spots. Can someone refer me to the article that mentions the above statistic? Thanks.

Can't find what your talking about. Someone on this site stated that the number of US MD students by 2015-2016 will still be less than the number of residency spots.
Also I just read an article, on CNN, that says that in 2011 over 5% of U.S. students didn't match into a residency. Yes the number of residency spots will remain relatively stagnant but if you pursue a residency in Internal medicine, Pediatrics, physical medicine and rehabilitation, or some other non competitive residency you will have a much greater chance of obtaining one. In 2011 more FMGs were accepted into residencies than ever before, and some of those new MD/DO schools will be shut down due to lack of funding (I hear Scranton is dealing with issue. Don't pursue anything related to Surgery if you go to SGU, Ross, or AUC since you will most likely be rejected but other

options like the ones I listed will be easier.

Final points
Take a look at page 5 of the NRMP Main Residency match PDF (search NRMP on Google) . If you can see the table, there are 1000s of residency spots in IM filled by non US MDs. Over 1000 for Family Med too, and DOs have their own residencies so I wouldn't worry too much about them as competition (they would have to take the USMLE which is a hassle since they already take the COMPLEX). I can't see how they build that many schools to fill that many spots in the U.S. by 2016, not a chance. On page 6 they explain that 598 U.S. citizens who are FMGs matched into IM, 515 into Family Med, and 242 in Pediatrics. Those would be the top 3 Carib students should target. Also target specialties that are offering more opportunities over time such as Neurology.

I've cited it in one of my posts before ...do a search through them.
It was an article that quoted the AAMC president that they (meaning the AAMC) project that by 2016 the number of residency spots will equal the number of US seniors...it was posted in the news releases on the AAMC website

Still that's a misleading statistic, since it's a projection (it's based on assumption by the ACGME that all of the new medical schools being opened will be licensed and will continue to operate by 2016). I have been told the medical school in Scranton, PA is under the threat of being shut down, and I'm sure that is not the only school that will be out of the picture.
Even if it was completely accurate, then that means a higher % of US MDs won't match (at the moment the rate is over five percent) since they all try for the desirable residencies. Internal medicine, Family medicine, Pediatrics, etc. will still be available to U.S. citizen FMGs because those are not desirable (due to factors such as lower pay or high amount of years/work hours required to obtain a high paying position). I think FMGs need to realize that they won't be getting Surgery residencies or even Anesthesiology (unless they go to a terrible residency in the middle of nowhere), but if they do pursue it I wish them the best of luck.

Originally Posted by curioustobemd

Still that's a misleading statistic, since it's a projection (it's based on assumption by the ACGME that all of the new medical schools being opened will be licensed and will continue to operate by 2016). I have been told the medical school in Scranton, PA is under the threat of being shut down, and I'm sure that is not the only school that will be out of the picture
Even if it was completely accurate, then that means a higher % of US MDs won't match (at the moment the rate is over five percent) since they all try for the desirable residencies. Internal medicine, Family medicine, Pediatrics, etc. will still be available to U.S. citizen FMGs because those are not desirable (due to factors such as lower pay or high amount of years/work hours required to obtain a high paying position). I think FMGs need to realize that they won't be getting Surgery residencies or even Anesthesiology (unless they go to a terrible residency in the middle of nowhere), but if they do pursue it I wish them the best of luck.

And that is your prerogative to view the info that way...IMHO I would find it highly unlikely that a greater percentage of US seniors would go unmatched but that me...I tend to be a more glass half empty and hope for the best but prepare for the worst kinda person...
If I was applying for med school now I would take this kind of info seriously but your
Right in that it's a projection bit from a pretty reliable source and not too far in the future...it's a bit scary and I'm just glad I'm done...

Originally Posted by rokshana

And that is your prerogative to view the info that way...IMHO I would find it highly unlikely that a greater percentage of US seniors would go unmatched but that me...I tend to be a more glass half empty and hope for the best but prepare for the worst kinda person...
If I was applying for med school now I would take this kind of info seriously but your
Right in that it's a projection bit from a pretty reliable source and not too far in the future...it's a bit scary and I'm just glad I'm done...

I'm just hoping the those in the system now can get through before this happens. It's not a matter of if--just when. I'm hoping 2015 is still a good year.

Also..do give some hope...I remember reading some articles about new spots in Georgia and Oklahoma. Of course, the amount of spots will not suffice, however, some spots are being added.

Here's the Data from AAMC
https://www.aamc.org/download/281126...llment2012.pdf

And here's the article from https://www.aamc.org/newsroom/newsre...jections.html:

Washington, D.C., May 3, 2012—New data released today show that enrollment at U.S. medical schools is on target to reach an increase of 30 percent by 2016, according to the annual Medical School Enrollment Survey conducted by the AAMC (Association of American Medical Colleges) Center for Workforce Studies.

“U.S. medical schools are doing all that they can to address a serious future physician shortage in this country. We’re pleased to see that enrollment continues to grow, both through the expansion of existing medical schools and the establishment of new ones,” said AAMC President and CEO Darrell G. Kirch, M.D. “But this won’t amount to a single new doctor in practice without an expansion of residency positions.”

Released during the center’s 8th Annual Physician Workforce Research Conference, results of the survey show that first-year medical school enrollment is projected to reach 21,376 in 2016-17, a 29.6 percent increase above first-year enrollment in 2002-03. This puts projections on track to meet the 30 percent increase by 2015 that the AAMC called for in 2006.

Of the projected 2002-2016 growth in medical school enrollment, the survey found that 58 percent will occur in the 125 medical schools that were accredited as of 2002, 25 percent will occur in schools accredited since 2002, and 17 percent will come from schools that are currently applicant or candidate schools, according to the LCME (Liaison Committee on Medical Education). While some of these increases happened during the economic downturn of the past few years, more than half of the institutions responding to the 2011 survey (52 percent) indicated concern with their ability to maintain or increase enrollment due to the economic environment.

With the United States facing a shortage of more than 90,000 primary care and specialty doctors by 2020, according to AAMC estimates, an increase in federal funding to expand the number of residency training positions—which prepare new doctors for independent practice—is essential to expand the overall supply of U.S. physicians.

“Otherwise, it may become more difficult for medical students to complete their training and for patients to get the care they need—as our population continues to grow and age, more doctors retire, and 32 million Americans enter the health care system as a result of the Affordable Care Act,” said Kirch.