The AAMC has *recommended* a 30% increase in allopathic schools over the next 10 years.
AAMC Calls for 30 Percent Increase in Medical School Enrollment
If the schools are able to accomplish this, then that would be an ~3% increase per year.
Some thoughts on this:
1. I think this is easier said than done for most schools. For example, Mayo enrolled it's first class of 40 students in 1972. Last year they enrolled 42 students. I doubt they care at all what the AAMC recommends. They're not going to increase their enrollment, and even if they did, at 3%/yr that would be only one more med student/year.
2. A much bigger concern that actually impacts anyone contemplating the offshore route today, is the Ross/SGU enrollment increase. Over the past 3 years these two schools alone have added more students than what the AAMC would like/year from the entire US allo school pool. And these are the ones who will be directly competing with you for residency placement.
3. If you read the AAMC article, the purpose of the recommended US allo increase is to remedy the "national physician shortage." Obviously, residency position increases are key to this, not med school increases. And so they add, "To accommodate additional U.S. M.D. graduates in teaching hospital residency training programs, the AAMC policy continues to call for the removal of the cap on the number of residency positions funded by Medicare." Thus, if US allo enrollment increases, funded residency positions will as well.