Using the assumptions above, the net present value of a delay is about 80k (i.e. the after tax net present value of a delay).

Thus, the expected gain of AUC relative to SGU is 50k - x (80k) where x is the probability of a delay. The breakeven point is x = 5/8 = 0.625.

Thus, AUC is less costly as long as the probability of a delay is less than 0.62.

The point is that the probability of a delay has to be pretty high to overcome the cost difference. Also, the delay has to cause one to miss the match in order for it to have financial consequences. So, x really is the probability of missing the match due to a delay. Anyone have a ball park figure for AUC? My guess is that it is less than 10%. So, although the chance of a delay is higher at AUC than SGU, it is a relatively minor cost (as long as x is relatively low) and this factor can probably be ignored when choosing schools.