I am always a bit skeptical about these forecasts of shortages. The chart below shows the number of physicians and nurses per 100,000 population.

year physicans nurses
---------------------------------------
1970 143 369
1980 190 560
1990 230 714
2000 278 833
---------------------------------------
source: Folland, Economics of Health and Health Care, 4th ed.

The number of health care workers per 100,000 has nearly doubled in 30 years! There has also been an expansion of midlevels.

I wonder whether the shortage is projected because of a forecasted increase in the intensity of medical care (i.e. a continuation of the trend in the chart) or due to other reasons.