“U.S. Likely to Face a Shortage in 2020” – U.S. Council on Graduate Medical Education
(COGME) Report (2005) - In January 2005, the Council on Graduate Medical Education (COGME)
released its 16th Report, “Physician Workforce Policy Guidelines for the United States, 2000-2020”
recommending an increase of 3,000 medical school graduates by 2015 in order to meet rising demand
and need. Only under the most optimistic of various supply and demand scenarios outlined in the report
would the nation have an adequate supply to meet demand in the year 2020. When the mid-points of the
projected supply and demand scenarios outlined in the report are used, the net result is a projected
shortage of about 85,000 physicians in 2020 – which is equivalent to approximately ten percent of
today’s physician workforce